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Taiwan’s reclamation has been a cornerstone of Beijing’s mission for “national rejuvenation” since the Chinese Communist Party successfully assumed power over mainland China in 1949. President Xi Jinping reiterated the point in his National Day Address on Oct. 1.

Due to both Taiwan’s highly developed military defense and preparedness, many analysts have indicated that successful reunification by the People’s Liberation Army in an invasion is far less certain than is often assumed — even without U.S. intervention to defend Taiwan. Yet while commentators have analyzed the likelihood of forced reunification, few have written about one consequence of such an attempted reunification: a Taiwanese refugee crisis.

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