There is a growing belief that the United States is heading for a recession, possibly before the 2020 presidential election.
Current economic data and statistical trends indicate that many parts of the U.S. economy are apparently under strain. It is not evident to me, however, that a recession is around the corner. In fact, the real danger for America is more serious, and is best described as the "Argentina risk."
During the first few decades of the 20th century, Argentina was one of the world's fastest-growing economies. It also had talent flowing in, with more immigrants per capita than virtually any other country. As a result, Argentina was among the world's 10 richest countries, ahead of Germany and France.