The problems in Afghanistan often feel intractable, like a knot of countless ropes bound together. Every time a strand is pulled, another part of the knot tightens up. Currently, the Taliban refuse to have talks with the Afghan government, which they label a puppet regime; the Kabul government insists that any power-sharing agreement allow limited numbers of Western troops to remain; the Pakistanis, who have long sheltered Taliban leaders, are unwilling to fully encourage a peace settlement; the United States and its NATO partners are sick of war and want out; the Russians play a complex double game, sometimes encouraging the Taliban and other times working with the government; and India and China covet the rare-earth metals and other minerals under the dry soil — perhaps $2 trillion worth.
But there are also some distinct signs of progress, due largely to Zalmay Khalilzad, who last year took over as the U.S. special representative to the reconciliation process. I know Zal well, and as the saying goes, if he didn't exist we'd have to invent him. He was born in Afghanistan, received a Ph.D. from the University of Chicago, and has served as a U.S. ambassador three times (to the United Nations, Afghanistan and Iraq). Khalilzad is a highly creative thinker and diplomat.
He has moved the situation to a serious level of dialog, through a variety of techniques including a shifting cast of characters at the talks, keeping the Taliban and the Afghan government from having to sit directly with each other, moving the location to the Qatar, Pakistan and other "neutral" sites, engaging Russia and Pakistan effectively, and keeping strategic communications flowing.