It's a simple matrix analysis. Every CIA analyst knows it. It's about North Korean leader Kim Jong Un's veracity and U.S. President Donald Trump's discernment. There are only four possibilities that I can think of. Any one of them makes Tokyo dread how unsuccessful the upcoming U.S.-North Korea summit could be.

Amid all the political constants and variables in the Korean Peninsula, especially in inter-Korean relations, the most vital issue for Tokyo is whether and how North Korea gives up its decades-old strategic nuclear missile development program. Theoretically, there are four scenarios.

1. A successful but most unlikely scenario — Kim is honest and Trump is insightful: If Kim is determined to dismantle his nuclear arsenal in a short period of time, and if Trump is convinced that Kim will do so, it would be a "job well done" and Trump could be eligible for the Nobel Peace Prize. It is the best but most unlikely one of the four scenarios.