The Meteorological Agency has launched a system in which it will release information on a much-feared major earthquake in the Nankai Trough off the Pacific coast if the probability of such a quake occurring is deemed higher than normal. Given the current status of seismological data and knowledge, a precise forecast of an earthquake is impossible. Although the new system may be of some help, it is more important for both the government and the private sector to be prepared for an earthquake on the assumption that one can strike at any time and at any place without warning.
The idea for the new system arose after the government's Central Disaster Management Council issued a report in September. Noting the difficulty of predicting the occurrence of an earthquake with a high degree of certainty, the report called for a review of anti-disaster measures that are based on the assumption that quake forecasts are possible, the notion presumed in the Law on Special Measures Concerning Countermeasures for Large-Scale Earthquakes, which empowers the prime minister to issue an official alert when a large-scale quake is forecast as imminent in and around Suruga Bay off Shizuoka Prefecture. As a result, the system for predicting the Tokai quake — with the prime minister issuing an alert on its basis — is effectively no longer in place.
The government is now studying how the national and local authorities should respond when the chances of a large-scale quake occurring in the whole Nankai Trough become high. The Meteorological Agency decided to launch the new system before the government study is concluded.