U.S. President Donald Trump has decided to decertify the nuclear agreement with Iran, launching a process by which the U.S. Congress could re-impose sanctions on the country. Fortunately, it seems likely that Congress, rather than pulling the plug on the deal, will seek some alternative that allows Trump to save face with his supporters, to whom he has long promised U.S. withdrawal from the Iran deal. Nonetheless, decertification is a serious mistake.
Like many Israelis, I agree with Trump that the international agreement reached with Iran in 2015 is fundamentally a bad deal. But it is also a done deal. Even if the United States does decide to withdraw from it completely, none of the other parties — not China or Russia or even the Europeans (France, Germany and the United Kingdom) — will follow suit. Iran would continue to reap the agreement's benefits.
At the same time, however, Iran could view the U.S. decision to renege on the deal as justification for reviving its halted nuclear program. After all, the Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act authorizes the U.S. president to decertify the deal if Iran violates its terms. And, at least technically, Iran has done no such thing.