With the series of events over the last three weeks in North Korea, from firing of ballistic missiles over Japan to the testing of what looked to be a hydrogen bomb on Sept. 3, Pyongyang's direction seems clear enough. Despite immense effort over two decades, from sanctions to increasing isolation and international ostracization, the impoverished country with a population of just 23 million and one of the lowest per capita GDPs in the world has, far more effectively and quickly than anyone had predicted, created something close to a viable, projectible nuclear weapon capability.
This was not the way things were meant to be. A large part of the blame needs to be placed on the leaderships in power in China over this era. Despite having immense leverage over its neighbor, through trade, aid and energy, every time Beijing's leaders were offered a moment to decisively deal with their truculent, troublesome neighbor, they backed down. China is faced today with the final consequences of this passivity. To the Indians, Russians and Pakistanis can now be added the North Koreans as nuclear powers bordering China. There cannot be a more unhappy geography for a country to occupy than this.
Despite the complexities of the current situation, we need to be clear about one thing: Nothing about a North Korea with a ballistic nuclear weapon capability is good for China. It creates significantly more potential for instability in the region. It impacts dramatically on China's grand plans to be a dominant regional and global player. It directly poses risks to its relations with neighboring countries ranged at a time when China has the fulfillment of its great dream of modernity within reach — restoration of its status as a major international power.