The latest demographic forecast by a governmental think tank — that Japan's population will decline by one third in the coming 50 years — points to mounting policy challenges ranging from depletion of the workforce to sustainability of the social security system. Steady and persistent efforts are needed to slow and hopefully reverse the demographic trend, but we also must explore how we can live with the rapidly shrinking and graying population.
According to the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, which every five years releases long-term demographic estimates up to 50 years ahead, Japan's population in 2065 will be 88.08 million — a roughly 30 percent fall from the 127 million people living in Japan in 2015. That will be equivalent to losing an average of 780,000 people every year.
The population will not just shrink but will be much grayer. People 65 or older will account for an estimated 38.4 percent of the total population, up sharply from 26.6 percent in 2015. There were 2.1 people in the 20-to-64 age bracket for every one person in the elderly ranks in 2015. Fifty years on, that ratio will be 1.2 to 1— a daunting prospect for the social security system, in which welfare programs for retirees are sustained by premium payments from the working population. That Japan had nine working-age adults for each of elderly person in 1965 shows the radical changes in population structure.