Barring a major upset, Donald Trump should win the nomination of the Republican Party. Hillary Clinton, long considered the presumptive Democratic front-runner, is facing an unexpectedly tough insurgency from an elderly socialist challenger. By contrast Trump was not given any chance but has confounded pundits, analysts and opponents, and created consternation among U.S. friends and allies. The election may well be decided on who generates the stronger negatives, with people voting not for the candidate they like but against the one they hate.

Many had assumed Trump was indulging in cyclical and bombastic self-promotion, would not really run, but if he did would spontaneously combust and disappear off the electoral map. Instead he keeps soaring, to the puzzlement of analysts and irritation of party grandees. No matter how many media, party and other heavyweights have been mobilized to clobber him, like the Energizer bunny in the famous ad Trump just keeps going and racks up wins.

Of all the candidates in both parties, Trump's appeal seems to reach the broadest and deepest with respect to region, class, education and income. The unifying theme is he channels their frustrations with a fearlessness they have grown to admire. They are looking for an in-your-face champion who will stick it to the snobs (elites) and scolds (political correctness warriors). Trump offers slogans not policies, insults not bonhomie, and shouts loudly instead of engaging in debate. Where Americans generally are welcoming, courteous and polite, Trump is one-finger rude, crude and vulgar.