Just a few years ago, Brazil was celebrated as one of the world's economic success stories. Using its extraordinary resource wealth as a foundation, the Brazilian economy was expanding three times faster than that of the United States, poverty was shrinking and employment was on the rise. As Latin America's largest economy, Brazil was poised to lead the region in a new resurgence. The country's prospects were so bright that it was identified as one of the BRICs — along with Russia, India and China — nations that were offering an alternative organizing principle for global governance.
That picture has been transformed, however. Brazil's economy has contracted over the last two quarters and is projected to shrink 2.7 percent in 2015 and again in 2016, the first two-year decline in nearly a century. Brazil's currency, the real, has dropped 35 percent this year, hitting new lows of 4 real to $1. Inflation has been pushed up to 9.5 percent and the budget deficit is now 9.2 percent of gross domestic product. It is reckoned that the country has lost 500,000 jobs this year, pushing unemployment to a five-year high; experts anticipate the loss of nearly 2.5 million jobs by the end of 2016. Companies listed on Brazil's main stock exchange have lost an estimated $1 trillion in value since 2011.
The country's economic situation is compounded by a political crisis that threatens President Dilma Rousseff with impeachment. That combination ensures that there will be no resolution to the unfolding crisis and Brazil will continue to slip and drift.
Brazil's remarkable resurgence was produced by the global commodities boom that followed the global financial crisis. In particular, China's appetite for raw materials to feed its economy was instrumental. Yet, as is so often the case, Brazil's leaders did not use the boom years to push needed reforms, and instead borrowed money from overseas so that a left-oriented government could share its largesse with the public. As the economy has slowed, those debts, denominated in dollars, got more expensive. Not surprisingly, the country's sovereign debt was recently lowered to junk bond status and lost its investment-grade status.
The difficulties Brazil faces are exacerbated by a political crisis that is lapping not just at the door of Rousseff's administration, but that of the president herself. The first problem is a corruption scandal that involves Petrobras, Brazil's state-run energy giant. Prosecutors allege that construction and engineering firms paid politicians more than $2 billion in bribes for contracts that were inflated. Rousseff was chairwoman of the company at the time the bribes were made, meaning she either knew of the malfeasance or was oblivious to massive corruption. Either charge is damaging. Even if she is not directly involved, the number of politicians tainted — more than 230 in her administration and at the highest levels of the company are being investigated; 57 have already been arrested and 46 indicted — makes legislating difficult, if not impossible.
The Petrobras scandal is not Rousseff's only problem. A court reviewing the government's 2014 budget reports unanimously ruled that her government fudged the books to hide overspending in the run-up to the presidential campaign. The decision provides justification to launch impeachment proceedings against the president. That ruling was followed by a decision by the elections commission to investigate the president's 2014 campaign for illegal contributions. Meanwhile, another court has agreed to allow the questioning of Rousseff's predecessor and mentor, former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva — a move that will keep the pressure on the current president.
The result is twofold. First, there are plunging approval ratings — despite being elected to a second term a year ago — that make her the most unpopular president since Brazil returned to democracy in 1985. That in turn makes it virtually impossible for her to muster the political capital to bring about the hard choices that the country needs to get its economy back on track. The president has reversed course and attempted to implement a tough-minded austerity budget, but the legislature has balked at following her lead. Her opponents would prefer to leave her twisting in the wind so that they can force her from office.
She has tried to reduce resistance by shaking up her Cabinet and bringing the opposition into her government. That might work in theory, but the opposition seems to be thinking that either the president is so damaged that they will not be blamed for ongoing troubles or they will have leverage to extract greater concessions from the president. By this logic, better a weakened president that will be held responsible for Brazil's woes than replacing her through impeachment.
Ordinary Brazilians will pay the price for such machinations. They are squeezed by inflation and a devalued currency that will help the country's exporters. Debt will grow, but most economists believe it can be managed, although efforts to become more competitive will mean reduced payrolls and rising unemployment. Brazilians will be desperate to celebrate when they host the Olympics next year.
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