Japan's calorie-based food self-sufficiency rate was 39 percent in fiscal 2013 — the same level for the fourth consecutive year. The farm ministry's goal is to raise the rate to 50 percent by fiscal 2020. But it should be realistic and realize that this is unattainable. While a high food self-sufficiency rate may be psychologically reassuring, being obsessed with raising the rate carries a danger of deforming the nation's overall agricultural policy.
In fiscal 2013, a last-minute buying spree ahead of the April 1 consumption tax hike boosted demand for rice, increasing self-sufficiency figures for the crop. But bad weather lowered the production of wheat and soybeans, preventing the overall self-supply rate from going up.
Japan maintained a food self-sufficiency rate of more than 70 percent until fiscal 1965. The rate hit a record low of 37 percent in fiscal 1993 due to a poor rice harvest. After rising to 46 percent in the following fiscal year, the rate again fell. Since fiscal 1997, the rate has been hovering around 40 percent — the lowest level among developed countries — and there is no prospect that it will substantially improve.