This presidential election will likely determine whether the United States and Russia undertake a major new reduction of nuclear weapons; whether U.S. arms are supplied to Syrian rebels; whether more U.S. troops are withdrawn from Afghanistan next year; and whether Washington renews pressure on Israel to accept terms for a Palestinian state. It could significantly lower the threshold for a U.S. military strike against Iran.
You wouldn't know any of that from listening to the conventions, of course. Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney and President Barack Obama appear determined to avoid serious debate. The GOP convention last week echoed with vague slogans about "American leadership" and Obama's "weakness." This week, expect to hear lots from the Democratic convention in Charlotte, North Carolina, about the killing of Osama bin Laden and the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq.
That doesn't mean, as some in the foreign policy world like to argue, that this presidential election won't change much, even if Romney wins. It's true that U.S. interests and the pursuit of them tend to remain broadly consistent across presidencies. Obama has fought al-Qaida just as ruthlessly as George W. Bush; if Romney is elected, he will surely drop his threats to start a trade war with China, just as Bush and Bill Clinton did.