Amid so much uncertainty over the fate of human rights advocate Chen Guangcheng and his family, the role that luck played in Chen's saga stands out.

I spoke with Chen at length on Monday and Tuesday of last week at his request. Before persecution of him began, we had cooperated for several years in legal research and training.

If Chen had been allowed to talk to his Chinese friends before leaving the U.S. Embassy last Wednesday, as he says he requested, the heroic law professor Teng Biao and other rights activists who have endured abuse from security thugs would have told Chen the same things they said after his American escorts left him at a Beijing hospital: Don't give up the safety of the embassy, even if it means further separation from your family and indefinite isolation. Had U.S. officials put Chen in touch with Rep. Chris Smith, a New Jersey Republican, as Chen requested on Tuesday (May 1), Smith undoubtedly would have given the same advice.