The Arab Spring was fast and dramatic: Nonviolent revolutions in the streets removed dictators in Tunisia and Egypt in a matter of weeks, and similar revolutions got underway in Libya, Syria, Bahrain and Yemen. The Arab Autumn is a much slower and messier affair, but despite the carnage in Syria and the turbulent runup to Egypt's first democratic elections, the signs are still positive.

Demonstrators in Bahrain were driven from the streets by massive military force, and Libya's revolution only triumphed after Western military intervention in support of the rebels. In both Syria and Yemen, originally nonviolent protests risk tipping into civil wars. But there is still more good news than bad.

In October, Tunisia held its first-ever free election, and produced a coalition government that is broadly acceptable to most Tunisians. Some worry that the leading role that the local Islamic party, Ennahda, gained in the new government bodes ill for one of the Arab world's more secular societies, but Ennahda's leaders promise to respect the rights of less religious Tunisians, and there is no reason not to believe them.