While everyone is watching events unfold in Libya, Syria and the rest of the Arab world, Iran is watching, too. And the leaders in Tehran may decide that this is the time to rush for the bomb. Moammar Gadhafi gave it up. Bashar Assad fell short of getting it. Would they be next?
The mullahs probably ask themselves a fair number of "what if" questions. What if Gadhafi had had the bomb? Would NATO have dared to bomb Libya? Would the Europeans even have thought to take Gadhafi on if he had had nuclear-armed missiles aimed at Italy and France? And what if Assad had the bomb? Would Syria's leader be as vulnerable? Would Turkey be able to act independently if Ankara and Istanbul were within the reach of Syrian nuclear weapons? Would Israel be so concerned at the prospect of being targeted by Syria that it would have asked allies not to pressure Assad?
As they watch this year's developments throughout the Middle East, Iran's leaders see the potential for great gains and losses. They took over Iran in 1979, the same year Egypt signed the first-ever peace treaty between an Arab state and Israel. Where will current events take the region? Which of these two opposite trends will prevail?