HONG KONG — As more than a billion Roman Catholics prepare to commemorate the most sacred mysteries of their faith culminating at Easter next Sunday, most eyes will be on the small elderly man in the Vatican palace to see whether he can steer the church through the turbulence tearing it apart.

Pope Benedict XVI has yet to show that he completely comprehends the peril that the church is in, battered by the sins of its own priests and by a world that increasingly believes the church is irrelevant if not evil.

Recently the pope offered an unprecedented groveling apology to the people of Ireland for the abuse of children at the hands of Catholic priests. He told victims and their families: "You have suffered grievously and I am truly sorry. I know that nothing can undo the wrong you have endured. Your trust has been betrayed and your dignity has been violated."