SINGAPORE — The territorial dispute in the South China Sea — referred to as the Spratly Islands dispute — used to be described as a major regional security flash point. Although core issues remain unresolved, economic integration and globalization, since the beginning of this decade, have temporarily shunted parties in the dispute away from direct confrontation.
While the conflict appears to be de-escalating, almost all claimants have been coming up with and relying on nonmilitary means to enforce claims and to consolidate their stance. Some organize tourism field trips to the disputed areas and atolls. Others send scientists there for wildlife research, while other powers with more coercive capital construct permanent structures on disputed reefs and rocks.
The South China Sea dispute is a bargaining game. Each country must decide which of the various strategies it possesses to use against others. The one with the most bargaining power gains the biggest reward. Those with no bargaining power leave empty- handed. The most powerful player will contest aggressively and use superior strength to intimidate weaker foes. And that is what's happening in the South China Sea.