While global attention has been focused on U.S. Republican vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin, another woman has quietly climbed to the top politics, in Israel. Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni has been elected leader of the Kadima party — the main party in that country's ruling coalition — and is now in position to become the first female prime minister in decades.
Ms. Livni is a relatively new face in Israeli politics. A lawyer, army captain and former Mossad agent, she entered Parliament in 1999. While she is seen as a moderate within her party, she is in fact a relative hardliner on the spectrum of Israeli views: Her parents were members of the Irgun, the underground Zionist militia group that carried out attacks against Arab and British institutions in the fight for an independent Jewish state. Both parents spent time in prison for their work. Her father later served in Parliament.
A member of Likud and a staunch supporter of a Greater Israel, she opposed the Oslo peace accords with the Palestinians and the creation of a Palestinian state. But demographic realities have pushed her to accept the two-state solution: Without a separate Palestinian entity, Jews risk becoming a minority in their own country. Thus, when former Prime Minister Ariel Sharon split with his old party to move to the center and founded Kadima, she went with him and backed his call for a unilateral Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip.
As foreign minister, she has been the chief Israeli negotiator in talks with the Palestinians and is committed to continuing the peace process. But that requires her to take the reins of government. She replaces outgoing Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, who has undergone several corruption investigations. The police have recommended that he be indicted on bribery charges and the attorney general is considering that. Mr. Olmert delivered a letter of resignation to President Shimon Peres Sunday.
Ms. Livni has six weeks to form a new governing coalition if she becomes prime minister. That will not be easy. Israeli politics are driven by small parties — Kadima is the largest single party in the 120-seat Parliament and has only 29 legislators — and coalitions are difficult to maintain. Personalities matter as much as policies. Ms. Livni's desire to cast herself as a reformer who rejects Mr. Olmert's wheeling and dealing gives her a distinct disadvantage when it comes to back-room maneuvers. In addition, her margin of victory was a razor-thin 1.1 percent of the votes; a projected double-digit margin of victory evaporated. That means she may have trouble taking control of her own party, much less the coalition she inherits.
The current ruling coalition of 67 legislators includes the center-left Labor party, the Pensioners party and the ultra-orthodox Shas party. Ms. Livni has not gotten along well with Mr. Ehud Barak, head of the Labor Party, a former prime minister and the current defense minister. Mr. Barak knows that the rightwing Likud party is leading in polls and is projected to win a general election if it were to be held. That fear may be enough to keep him and his party in line.
Shas may be another matter. It prefers a harder line against the Palestinians and opposes any talks with Syria, which means it is more naturally inclined toward Likud. It is against any concession on Jerusalem, which the Palestinians want to make the capital of their state. Shas members also seek more welfare payments, which Ms. Livni opposes.
If Shas pulls out, Ms. Livni could reach out to another leftwing party, Meretz, or the Arab parties. Either group could support the government from within the coalition or as a nongovernment member, but it is unclear how the hawkish members of Kadima would respond to that. Moreover, it would be extremely difficult for her to claim a mandate for any outcome of the negotiations with the Palestinians. The biggest thing going for her, and her coalition, is the fear of a general election, a Likud victory and the likely return of Binyamin Netanyahu as prime minister.
Ms. Livni is enlivened by the prospect of becoming Israel's first female prime minister since Golda Meir left office in 1974. It would be a great accomplishment in a country where most women are considered "too soft" to lead the country. But Israeli's history should suggest that "hardness" should not be the measure of a politician. Few were harder than Mr. Sharon and he was forced to accept reality and unilaterally withdraw from Gaza.
Rather, Israeli voters should focus on competence. They must find a leader who can deliver on the promise of governance and try to overcome the deep divisions that dominate their society. Only a confident and united Israel nation can tackle the difficult challenges that the country faces — cobbling together an enduring peace with the Palestinians is prime among them.
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