BERLIN — The recent comprehensive assessment by America's spy agencies about Iran's nuclear program and ambitions — the "National Intelligence Estimate" — has opened the door to fresh strategic discussions among the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council and Germany. Such a strategic reconsideration is probably most necessary for those in the Bush administration (and a few elsewhere), who until recently have been prophets of imminent danger.
For Europeans, the NIE has not removed, but rather confirmed, the concerns that in 2003 prompted formation of the EU-3 (Britain, France and Germany) — namely, that Iran's nuclear program could eventually give it a military nuclear capability, and that even before that point, it might trigger regional nuclear proliferation.
The NIE also confirmed two assumptions that have since guided European diplomatic approach: Iran reacts to external incentives and disincentives, and taking legitimate Iranian interests into consideration is the best way to influence Iran's leaders.