BUENOS AIRES -- Hugo Chavez's nearly eight years in power in Venezuela -- which he will seek to extend in presidential elections next month -- seem to defy economic analysis. Indeed, any and all economic examination of Chavez's Venezuela confirms Edgar R. Fiedler's quip that if you "ask five economists something, you will get five answers . . . or six if one of them is a Harvard graduate."
Some people see in Chavez an innovative statesman who has seized an almost magical moment -- the windfall Venezuela has received from today's sky-high oil prices -- to change the rules of the game in his country. A few key indicators appear to support this. Foreign investment has grown recently from $1.5 billion (2004) to $2.5 billion (2005).
In that two-year period, Chavez stepped on the gas with regard to social reforms -- education, health care, etc. -- and moved to break down the country's excessive concentrations of wealth. Although more than 70 percent of national income remains in the hands of just 20 percent of the population, Chavez has forced big foreign oil companies to pay much higher royalties and has started expropriating unproductive land and industrial facilities.