In a Zen-like moment, U.S. Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld produced the following pearl of wisdom: "There are known knowns; there are things we know we know. There are known unknowns; that is to say, we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns -- the ones we don't know we don't know." The dawn of a new year is the perfect opportunity to ponder these many unknowns, to indulge in hypothesizing, and maybe even a little fantasizing, about what might unfold in the year ahead.
We know, for example, that there will be elections in Israel, Palestine and the United States. The first two hold out hope for a transformation of the political dynamic in the stalemated peace process between Israelis and Palestinians -- if Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon (and his new party) and Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, leading a rejuvenated and cleansed Fatah faction, win. A victory by hardliners -- Likud president and former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, on one hand, and Hamas, on the other -- could stiffen the stalemate or even resume a downward spiral in relations.
If unease and dissatisfaction with U.S. President George W. Bush and the Republic-dominated Congress produce Democratic majorities in either house during the off-year ballot -- a possibility despite the gerrymandering of districts that empowers incumbents -- then U.S. policies could shift considerably.