Policy proposals for creating an economic and social environment conducive to childbearing and child-rearing should be an important issue for voters to consider in next Sunday's Lower House election. An accelerating decline in the birthrate, followed eventually by a smaller labor force, will have a great impact on economic activities, social security, medical services and the future shape of families and communities.
Japan's population is likely to begin shrinking this year, two years earlier than had been predicted by the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research of the Health, Labor and Welfare Ministry. Since the population fell by 31,034 in the January-June period, according to a preliminary report by the ministry, experts do not rule out the possibility that the population may shrink for all of 2005.
In 2004, the fertility rate -- the number of children on average that a woman is expected to give birth to during her lifetime -- dipped to an all-time low of 1.2888. That's much smaller than the 2.08 needed for the population to sustain itself.