LONDON -- It is possible, even probable, that the French people will reject the European Union's proposed new constitution in their referendum on May 31.
The reasons, if this occurs, will be a marvelously French mixture of contradictory sentiments and arguments, all adding up to considerable embarrassment for the French government, and for all governments that have signed the treaty embodying the new constitution in the hopes that their electorate would in due course approve their actions.
In the French case, this is looking increasingly unlikely. France's unemployment exceeds 10 percent, business confidence is slumping, protest marches are taking place against labor law deregulation and salary restraints, and President Jacques Chirac's popularity is falling.