This year has the potential to shape the world in profound ways. Some key events, and their results, will be instantly evident. Much of their impact will not be visible for years to come, however. We can identify with reasonable certainty what those moments will be, but only guess at their outcome and consequences. And, of course, there will be wild cards, both natural and man-made, that defy our best guesses and preparations.
The year begins with two crucial elections. The first will be held Jan. 9 as the Palestinian Authority designates a successor to deceased Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat. It is almost certain that Mr. Mahmoud Abbas will prevail, but will the new president break with the past, crack down on terrorism against Israel and open the door to new relations with its adversary? It is unknown whether Mr. Abbas has the courage to try to forge a real peace with Tel Aviv, or if he can muster the support to fight militants committed to armed struggle. If he is bold and strong, he can set the Middle East on a new trajectory.
Equally, if not more, important are Iraqi elections scheduled for the end of January. That ballot will give the Iraqi people the chance to finally choose their own government. Yet the country continues to be wracked by violence, and it is unclear whether the elections, even if held as scheduled, will pass muster as truly democratic. Anything less will leave the resulting government without legitimacy and unable to fend off challenges from critics, many of whom desire nothing less than continued anarchy to discredit democracy and the U.S.-led attempt to reshape Iraq and the entire region.