A shakeup in Yangon has refocused international attention on the reclusive regime in Myanmar. The ousting of Prime Minister Khin Nyunt bodes ill for hopes of democratic reform in the country and will increase tension between Myanmar and ASEAN, and between ASEAN and the West. Concerned governments need to send a message -- and then act to reinforce it -- there can be no backtracking on pledges to move toward democracy.
Gen. Khin Nyunt took over as prime minister last year in a leadership shuffle that was generally considered little more than an attempt to put a pleasant face on a repressive regime. The new prime minister, the former head of intelligence, was viewed as a reformer, at least relative to other senior members of the government. But there were warnings that the move was in fact a demotion. The position is largely ceremonial and Mr. Khin Nyunt's predecessor, Gen. Than Shwe, maintained power as chair of the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC), the body that actually governs Myanmar.
As expected, the new prime minister announced a seven-step "road map to democracy" that would culminate in elections at some unspecified time. Yet there were warning signs, too. The special envoy of the United Nations secretary general, Mr. Razali Ismail, had brokered talks between the government and prodemocracy leaders since October 2000, but they broke down last year even though Mr. Khin Nyunt made all the appropriate comments about the need to resume dialogue with the opposition forces in Myanmar, led by the National League of Democracy and its head, Nobel Peace Prize winner Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi. She has been under house arrest after government-supported mobs launched violent attacks against her in May of last year.