China has dodged a bullet. The recent legislative elections in Hong Kong returned a majority that is sympathetic toward Beijing. That means that there will be no confrontation between Hong Kong's feisty democrats and the Communist Party leadership in China. Instead, the results provide a chance to test a hypothesis put forward by moderates in Hong Kong: with them in control of the legislature, Beijing will feel secure enough to permit a loosening of constraints and the extension of democracy in the special administrative region (SAR).
Hong Kong's Legislative Council has 60 seats. Half the seats are filled by votes from special constituencies, such as businesses, industry groups and professionals, some of which can consist of a relatively small number of voters; in total, the groups represent less than 6 percent of total votes cast. Their professional interests tend to make them pro-Beijing in outlook. And, in last week's vote, 23 pro-Beijing legislators were elected from these lists. Arcane rules govern allocation of the remaining 30 seats, which are selected by popular vote. As a result, despite winning 60,000 more votes in Hong Kong, democrats split six seats with pro-Beijing parties rather than claiming four.
The final result was a stronger-than-anticipated showing by pro-Beijing parties, which won 35 seats in all, retaining their majority. The largest party in the Legislative Council is now the Democratic Alliance for the Betterment of Hong Kong (DAB), which holds 12 seats, up from 10 in the previous legislature. Prodemocracy groups hold 25 seats, up from 22, but less than the 26-28 seats they had hoped to win. The results are especially frustrating for them since voter turnout reached a record high 53 percent and a high turnout was thought to favor the democrats.