SEOUL -- "The odds of any progress regarding the North Korean nuclear issue appear slim to nonexistent between now and the U.S. November presidential elections." This is the conventional wisdom, as publicly proclaimed by South Korean officials. I have also heard this view echoed in Washington and Beijing in recent weeks.
North Korea is hoping for "regime change" in Washington, the reasoning goes, and the Bush administration is too divided and too preoccupied with Iraq for there to be any significant progress before November.
This may well be true. But history and logic (to the extent that logic is ever a factor on Korean-related issues) argue otherwise. There are good reasons why both Washington and Pyongyang, especially the latter, may be willing to cut a deal -- or at least establish the framework for one -- prior to November.