Gradually, with hardly anyone noticing, President Chen Shui-bian of Taiwan has emerged as the most influential player in the volatile triangle of relations between China, the United States and his own island nation.
The reason: The Chinese are stuck with a rigid "one China" policy that shows no inkling of imagination or flexibility, and the Americans are paying only sporadic attention, hoping that the issue will somehow go away. That leaves Chen latitude to maneuver between them.
Even so, the chances of a miscalculation by Chen -- or the Chinese or the Americans -- continues to make the future of Taiwan the most dangerous long-term confrontation in Asia. One slip and hostilities across the Taiwan Strait could erupt to drag the U.S. and China into a disastrous war.