HONOLULU -- A battle for the hearts and minds of Asians has begun. While there has been considerable attention on "the rise of China," we're only slowly beginning to appreciate the meaning of that overused phrase. China's economic influence is well apparent. It has become Southeast Asia's leading trade partner -- importing some $413 billion worth of goods from the region last year -- and South Korea's as well. In 2003, China accounted for 80 percent of Japan's export growth, and that trend has persisted in 2004.
Not surprisingly, there is little talk about "the China threat" anymore. Rather, everyone prefers to think of China as an "opportunity." They are right, but there is also an element of whistling past the graveyard. Make no mistake: There is no sidestepping China's economic challenge. There is little alternative to accommodation, although governments can try to soften the blow.
The real China challenge flows from the influence that derives from that economic power. I don't worry about military power (at least not for some generations). China needs a peaceful and stable international environment so it can devote its energies to the economic development that will provide the foundation for the resumption of its role as the leading power in the region. Military muscle-flexing will upset the status quo and its neighbors. Beijing's restrained response to the Taiwanese election is proof that the Chinese leadership understands the stakes.