LONDON -- Uzbekistan President Islam Abduganievich Karimov will have been watching recent events in Georgia very closely. Could a "revolution" like the one that ousted President Eduard Shevardnadze happen in Uzbekistan?

Karimov can rest content in the knowledge that the factors that led to the success of the "velvet revolution" in Georgia are not present in Uzbekistan:

* In Georgia there was a real and organized opposition. True, its parliamentary representation and effectiveness had been cut by fraudulent elections and corruption in government, but opposition existed and had the power and capability to organize the street protests that brought down the government.