SINGAPORE -- Japan's Nov. 9 general election was generally regarded as a political setback for Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi and his reforms program. His Liberal Democratic Party emerged with fewer seats in the Diet than before -- but bolstered by a political merger with a smaller party, the governing coalition did retain a comfortable majority in the Lower House. In contrast, the opposition Democrat Party of Japan gained 40 seats.
Governments around the world are evaluating the impact the general election may have on their nations, international economics and the development of Japan's relations with the region. On the frontline are the members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, who reside in Japan's "Asian back yard" for investments, trade, tourism and technical cooperation. The elections also have implications for the development of Sino-Japanese and U.S.-Japanese relations, which could in turn have an impact on ASEAN.
Japan's election results could affect ties between ASEAN and Tokyo in three areas. ASEAN's foremost concern is that Japan could turn inward as a result of the poorer-than-expected political showing of Koizumi and the LDP. A politically weaker prime minister and LDP could bolster introverted and conservative forces in both the ruling party and Japan at a time when a sound economic recovery seems to be in the cards. The public "tiff" between Koizumi and members of the LDP's old guard (such as former Prime Minister Yasuhiro Nakasone) does not augur well for the ruling party, which appears more internally split now than before the election.