The administration of Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi became 2 years old at the end of April. At its inception, his Cabinet enjoyed a public approval rating of more than 80 percent, the highest ever for a postwar administration. Around the beginning of last month, it still maintained a high level of about 50 percent.

The presidential election of the Liberal Democratic Party is coming up in September, but the most frequently heard analysis at the moment is that there is no one to replace Koizumi. Thus the view is gaining ground that the LDP presidential election this fall will almost certainly result in the continuation of the present administration.

Of course, anything can happen in politics. For example, there is deep-rooted speculation that Shintaro Ishihara, who recently won re-election as governor of Tokyo, really has his eyes on the post of prime minister.

The young foursome of Taro Aso, Takeo Hiranuma, Masahiko Komura and Makoto Koga were rumored to be strong candidates, although such talk now appears to have vanished into thin air. Previously I also suggested the veteran Mitsuo Horiuchi, chairman of the LDP's General Affairs Council, but with Koizumi's approval rating as high as it is, there is a very strong likelihood that this autumn's LDP presidential election will indeed result in the continuation of the administration.

When Koizumi emerged as president of the LDP and prime minister, I compared him with former Prime Minister Morihiro Hosokawa, who held office 10 years ago, pointing out that they had similar personalities: Both are of the type that tries to move politics with sensibility and intuition rather than logic and theory.

Be that as it may, Koizumi has proved himself weak when it comes to domestic politics and the economy while strong in diplomacy and international politics. Recently, he has displayed his qualities to great effect in foreign policy relating to the Iraq war and the North Korea problem, but he has failed completely in the area of economic management.

Although he tried to sell himself as a "reformist," he knew nothing of the realities of economic management and has ended up leaving everything to Heizo Takenaka, the state minister in charge of economic, fiscal and financial policy. Koizumi has shown little consideration for people who are suffering from the economic slump, and has a strong tendency to write off critics as "conservatives" or the "forces of resistance."

When it comes to issues of diplomacy and security, Koizumi is full of pep. His early responses to North Korea's admission last autumn that its agents had abducted Japanese citizens in the 1970s and 1980s, and to the war against Iraq this spring, seemed to indicate that he either lacked confidence or was being dragged along by the hardline unilateralism of the Bush administration. Recently, though, almost as if the end justifies the means, Koizumi's diplomacy has received plaudits at home and abroad.

Despite a heavy schedule in the closing stages of the current Diet, Koizumi has pursued an extremely busy diplomatic agenda. His trips have taken him to Europe, the United States, the Middle East and St. Petersburg, Russia, where he held talks with President Vladimir Putin and met Chinese President Hu Jintao for the first time.

From Russia, the prime minister went on to Evian, France, for the Group of Eight developed nations' summit before returning to Japan. Reports say that Koizumi was popular at all of these meetings and talks, so things seem to have gone well for him.

Most of the meetings and talks were centered on restoring international relations after half a year of confusion and confrontation. The Japan-China, however, talks were significantly future-oriented. Although the last century saw them pitted as enemies against each other, the two powers of Asia have a history of close and friendly relations going back 2,000 years.

Koizumi and Hu are young leaders -- both born in 1942 -- and therefore are less bound by what happened before then. Their future-oriented pledge will have many sympathizers.