DAVOS, Switzerland -- How wildly the pendulum swings whenever "the experts" start talking about Japan vs. China. One can do no wrong, and the other can do no right.

Ten years ago the general idea was that Japan's economy was so awesome, it would wind up owning the Grand Canyon, the Lincoln Memorial and the New York Stock Exchange -- and still have enough left over to buy Latin America. Not only could Japan do no wrong, it could walk on water.

Now, it seems, the Japanese can't even float. That, at least, was a theme at the World Economic Forum's annual retreat here in the Swiss Alps that ended last Tuesday. Recession-bound, reform-resistant Japan is being all but written off as a major economic player, at least for the next few years.