The latest government report on Japan's gross domestic product -- that the economy in the first quarter of this year expanded 1.4 percent from the previous quarter, or at an annual rate of 5.7 percent -- has met with some skepticism. The general feeling appears to be that it is too good to be true. In fact, there is as yet no real sense of recovery despite the official announcement that the economy has "bottomed out."
This is the first time in 12 months that the GDP -- the total output of goods and services - has increased from quarter to quarter. In fiscal 2001, which ended March 31, the growth rate was minus 1.3 percent, slightly below the official target of minus 1 percent. Over the past decade, since the burst of the stock market and real estate bubble, the economy has zigzagged, punctuated by three recessions.
Widespread skepticism now seems warranted given the continuing lack of strength in domestic demand. One-half of first-quarter growth came from exports. Foreign sales of autos and electronic parts such as computer chips and display panels surged thanks to recovery of demand in the United States, Asia and elsewhere.