Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's administration, which marked its first anniversary April 26, stands at a crossroads. Its future hinges on whether his "no pain, no gain" reform initiative will produce tangible results. Thus far his administration has made no substantial achievements to speak of. Its public approval ratings have dropped from more than 80 percent a year ago to under 50 percent now, almost equal to the disapproval ratings.
In last October's Lower House by-elections, pro-Koizumi candidates rode his coattails to victory. But April's Upper House by-election in Niigata Prefecture, a conservative stronghold, ruined Koizumi's image as a political patron saint.
The defeat in Niigata was a wake-up call for the Liberal Democratic Party and the Koizumi administration: It reflected deep public dissatisfaction with the lack of concrete reform and growing public mistrust of politics following a spate of political-corruption scandals.