LONDON -- Ever since the common currency began to take shape in the mid-1990s, there has been a latent conflict between politicians in the euro zone and the guardians of the monetary stability pact in Frankfurt and Brussels. This autumn the politicians insist publicly that they stand four-square with the bankers and the officials at the European Commission; but the divergence is clear to see, and is only going to increase as the economic strains grow. Something may give this month.
As long as their economies were booming, governments could live with the deficit-cutting rules and high interest rates fixed by the European Central Bank to achieve its primary aim of fighting inflation. But now that the good times have evaporated, the strain is mounting in a way that could threaten the credibility of the euro just two months before its notes and coins go into service.
With leaked growth forecasts by the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development showing leading economies heading for their worst year for two decades, European battle lines have become steadily more apparent. In the corner of euro orthodoxy are ECB President Wim Duisenberg and the head of the EU Commission, Romano Prodi. Duisenberg says the bank has "very little room to maneuver" on its 3.75 percent interest rates, and Prodi insists on holding to Maastricht Treaty budget targets.