Japan's political landscape could change dramatically, depending on the outcome of July's Upper House elections. Mikio Aoki, a Liberal Democratic leader in the Upper House, says the three ruling coalition parties -- the Liberal Democratic Party, New Komeito and the New Conservative Party -- must win at least 64 seats between them to secure a majority.
The possibility of their losing their majority remains real, although the LDP last year rammed an electoral-reform package through the Diet to boost its chances of victory. If it loses the election, the LDP will probably try to assemble a majority by winning over independents and dissident opposition members. That will allow it to avert an immediate crisis and put off the day of reckoning. If it bungles, however, the Lower House could be dissolved for a snap general election.
Liberal Democrats no longer talk of winning a single-party majority in the Upper or the Lower House. The LDP share of the popular vote has continued to shrink since the 1994 electoral reforms, with unaffiliated voters now making up about 50 percent of the voter pool. Many of these nonaligned voters are coming around to the opposition parties.