There are very good reasons to be deeply concerned about the Northern Ireland peace process. The first reason is that it looks to be breaking down. Disputes over the decommissioning of weapons by the Irish Republican Army and the seating of Sinn Fein representatives on the executive council established by the Good Friday accord have deadlocked. The clock continues to tick, but no progress is being made toward implementation. The second reason is even more worrisome: The peace process is losing its meaning. Violence continues, yet no one wants to say the word "violation." The fear of a breakdown is understandable, but the result is that Ireland may have a peace process and no peace.
The Good Friday accord was always vague about key provisions. The critical issue of the IRA decommissioning its weapons -- giving up its guns -- was officially put off until May 22, 2000. But there has been pressure on the IRA to make a gesture, especially since it has been the chief beneficiary of the provision that calls for the release of political prisoners. The stakes were upped this week when an extremist unionist militia in Northern Ireland said that it would soon turn over some of its arsenal to the authorities. The move is designed to increase pressure on the IRA, but any move that takes weapons off the streets is to be welcomed.
Sinn Fein officials say that they favor disarmament in principle, but even a gesture is beyond their means. Moreover, they claim that their electoral strength in the last election gives them a right to seats in the new Cabinet, regardless of the weapons issue. That feeds suspicions that the IRA is stalling, using the peace process as a cover while it rearms. That fear has been stoked by the discovery that the IRA has been involved in gun-smuggling. The group's council did not deny the accusation, stating only that the smuggling was not authorized.