Earlier this week, China test-fired a ballistic missile. The practical significance of the test is minimal; it does little, if anything, to change the regional balance of power. Its timing, on the other hand, could not be worse. The launch sends the wrong message to every government with interests in the area. This needless muscle-flexing only ratchets up tensions in East Asia. It is not the act of a responsible government that wishes to be taken seriously.
China's Xinhua news agency confirmed that the Dongfeng (East Wind) 31, an intercontinental surface-to-surface strategic missile, capable of carrying a nuclear warhead 8,000 kilometers, had been successfully tested. Reportedly, the first tests of the missile were carried out in 1995. Western intelligence agencies had expected the launch sometime this year; it is part of the Chinese military's ongoing modernization program.
Although the launch comes during tensions between Beijing and Taipei that were triggered by statements by Taiwanese President Lee Teng-hui, it is unlikely that the two are linked. A long-range missile poses no particular threat to Taiwan; and the test itself took place far from the Taiwan Strait to ensure that it would not be mistaken for an actual attack. Far more worrisome are reports that mainland military forces have been put on the highest level of alert. Although the actual readiness levels of the forces are disputed, military sources confirm that both governments have stepped up the number of sorties flown by their air forces in the waterway, a mere 220 km across at its widest point. The danger is that an accident or miscalculation could occur and things would quickly get out of hand. Last week's seizure by the Chinese Navy of a Taiwanese freighter supplying islands near the mainland, for example, could have been a trigger.