The shadow of Vietnam hangs heavily over events in Yugoslavia. Once again Western policymakers have proven unable to grasp the reality of events in distant lands with complex backgrounds.

Both disasters began with bad bouts of historical amnesia. In Vietnam we were supposed to forget the 1954 Geneva Accords that had promised early reunification of Vietnam, and to ignore the brutal suppression of procommunist elements in South Vietnam soon after. Instead we were presented with the image of vicious guerrillas backed by Hanoi and China who had suddenly emerged from the darkness to overthrow a friendly and legitimate South Vietnamese government. Massive intervention by our side was thoroughly justified -- morally, legally and politically.

In Yugoslavia we were supposed to forget the dreadful World War II massacres of Serbs at the hands of pro-Nazi Croatians and Muslims. Instead it was taken for granted that with the Western-encouraged, post-Cold War breakup of former Yugoslavia, the Serbs would naturally accept minority status in an artificial, Muslim-dominated state of Bosnia and in a still fairly unrepentant Croatia. And this was in a part of the world where memories last long and revenge is fierce.