The international community has entered “a new era of crisis,” according to Japan’s annual defense report released Tuesday, with China representing Tokyo’s “greatest strategic challenge” and U.S. President Donald Trump’s policies expected to “significantly impact” the Indo-Pacific region.
The report, which was approved by the Cabinet at a meeting the same day, is packed with tough assessments of the regional security environment Japan faces, as well as a detailed description of progress it has made in strengthening its own defenses.
“The international community is facing its greatest challenge since the end of the war and has entered a new era of crisis,” the white paper says. “The issues ... are particularly pronounced in the Indo-Pacific region, where Japan is located, and are likely to become even more serious in the future.”
The report singles out China as “the greatest strategic challenge Japan has ever faced” and says the global balance of power is dramatically shifting, with competition between nations becoming more apparent.
“In particular, competition between the United States and China is likely to intensify,” it says.
Trump pushed that competition into overdrive in his first term, and has continued to do so during the first six months of his latest term.
The white paper also mentions the second Trump White House’s early focus on Ukraine, the Middle East and his administration’s commitment to Asia while also alluding to the possibility of pronounced shifts in policy.
“U.S. actions will significantly impact the security environment in the Indo-Pacific region, where Japan is located, and will require continued attention,” it says.
Asked why the white paper, which generally covers the period from April 2024 to last March, was limited in its analysis of the Trump administration's intentions, Defense Minister Gen Nakatani noted that many of the White House's policies remain unclear.
"As of now, the second Trump administration, which was established in January, has not yet published policy documents related to security, such as the National Security Strategy or the National Defense Strategy," Nakatani told a news conference the same day.
While Japan has welcomed Washington’s pledged commitment to the region, reiterated by U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth during a March visit to Tokyo, Trump has also been demanding that the American ally take on more of the burden for its defense in what he has said is their “one-sided” alliance.
Beyond a campaign of unilateral tariffs that threaten to throw regional economies into chaos, the Trump administration has also called for allies — including Japan — to boost defense spending to 5% of their gross domestic product.
Japan has committed to a goal of spending 2% of its gross domestic product on defense, laying out a five-year, ¥43 trillion plan in 2022.
According to the paper, some 61% of this plan has already been put into action, with defense-related spending in the fiscal year through March 2026 set to total ¥9.9 trillion ($68.4 billion), or 1.8% of GDP in line with 2022 budget standards — a figure that has Japan within striking distance of the 2% target.
Moves by the Chinese military in the airspace and waters around Japan have been a driving factor in the push to spend more on defense.
The white paper notes that the Chinese military is “stepping up their activities throughout areas surrounding Japan, including the East China Sea around the Senkaku Islands, the Sea of Japan and the western Pacific Ocean, beyond the so-called first-island chain and extending to the second-island chain.”
It cites several recent incidents, including the China Coast Guard’s deployment of a helicopter in Japan’s territorial airspace around the Japanese-controlled, Chinese-claimed Senkakus in May. The white paper also noted a Chinese military aircraft’s incursion into Japanese airspace last August and a Chinese aircraft carrier sailing close to Japan's territorial waters the following month — both firsts.
Beijing has continued to chip away at precedent in recent months, dispatching both of its active aircraft carriers deep into the western Pacific last month and sending its warplanes near Japanese aircraft multiple times in recent weeks, moves that Tokyo said risked collisions.
“China's growing military activities have the potential to seriously affect Japan's security, and this is of grave concern,” the paper says.
The report also echoes concerns stated in last year’s version about China’s designs on self-ruled Taiwan, noting Beijing’s ramped-up pace of military activities around the island.
The possibility of a “serious situation” akin to Russia’s war in Ukraine occurring in East Asia “cannot be ruled out,” it said, in a view widely seen as highlighting fears of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.
“As the United States continues to make clear its stance of supporting Taiwan militarily, China — which regards the Taiwan issue as the 'core of its core interests' — is unlikely to compromise, and the conflict between the U.S. and China over the issue may become even more pronounced,” the paper notes.
Trump’s predecessor, Joe Biden, repeatedly hinted that the U.S. would come to Taiwan’s aid in the event of an invasion. Since taking office, however, Trump has largely avoided the issue — though the Pentagon is believed to be pushing Japan to make clear the role it would play in the event of a U.S.-China conflict over Taiwan.
Tokyo is widely seen as viewing any crisis over Taiwan as an existential crisis for Japan, as well.
“Stability in the situation surrounding Taiwan is important not only for the security of Japan, but also for the stability of the international community, and Japan must continue to monitor the situation with even greater vigilance,” the white paper says.
The strong words about one of the most sensitive subjects in the Sino-Japanese relationship are sure to anger China, which calls Taiwan a renegade province that must be unified with the mainland — by force, if necessary.
According to the report, Russia’s military cooperation with China is another area of “serious concern.” The partners have conducted joint bomber flights and naval voyages around the archipelago that Tokyo says “are clearly intended as a demonstration of force against Japan.”
Russia’s growing military ties with North Korea — including Pyongyang’s shipment of weapons and deployment of troops for use in the Ukraine conflict — was also noted as a key concern.
In addition, the report said, “there is a risk that Russia may transfer nuclear and missile-related technology to North Korea, which could have a long-term impact on the military balance in the Indo-Pacific.”
North Korea was characterized as “a more serious and imminent threat to Japan's security than ever before,” the white paper said, noting that the country possesses “the capability to attack Japan by equipping ballistic missiles with nuclear weapons.”
In order to tackle these challenges, as well as address any potential fallout from U.S. shifts under Trump, the white paper also concluded that Japan must collaborate with “like-minded countries ... in order to counter unilateral attempts to change the status quo by force or coercion.”
“It is extremely important to strengthen cooperation not only with allies, but also with as many countries as possible,” the report says.
But Nakatani also made clear Tuesday that the white paper had another audience — Japanese citizens concerned about the ostensibly pacifist country's loosening of postwar shackles on its military capabilities.
"We hope that the defense white paper will serve as a tool to enhance the understanding and support of the public regarding the environment in which our country finds itself, as well as the efforts of the Defense Ministry and the Self-Defense Forces," he said.
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