To compensate for the growing disparity with China’s military, Taiwan is taking a page from Ukraine’s use of asymmetric warfare capabilities. But it is facing challenges, experts say, as the self-ruled island cannot yet mass-produce key autonomous systems that could help it weather a drawn-out conflict with Beijing.
Taiwan makes many of the components used in advanced weaponry such as microchips, but it needs to invest more in local companies to expand production capacity, according to Ou Si-Fu, deputy chief executive officer at the Institute for National Defense and Security Research (INDSR), the Ministry of National Defense's research arm.
“While we make our own advanced military and civilian drones, we are still partially reliant on acquiring foreign-made systems as we don’t have economies of scale, so we are still short of having a mass-production capability,” Ou said.
This, he said, could be risky as international supply lines could be cut off in a conflict with Beijing, which would force Taiwan to rely mainly on indigenous weapons and systems.
Taiwan produces several state-of-the-art surveillance, target acquisition and attack drones. However, the island still lags dangerously behind China, which reportedly has more than 50 different types of military drones. It also faces a massive gap in production capacity, since China is one of the world’s largest drone manufacturers.
Although islands typically offer the defender an advantage by forcing the attacker to undertake an amphibious landing, the lack of a land border makes it difficult for neighbors to supply Taiwan with weapons and other critical resources, unlike Ukraine.
“The lessons from the Ukraine conflict are clear and we can apply some of them to a Taiwan Strait scenario,” Ou said.
“The challenge is to balance the need for ISR (intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance) systems, real-time communication and counterdrone systems, while addressing the limitations in domestic production and technological self-sufficiency,” he added.
This means that Taiwan should also seek ways to disentangle its drone supply chain from that of less friendly neighbors, he said, in an apparent reference to China.
“Our problem is that we still need to import core technologies such as batteries, engines and spare parts,” Ou said.
Also not helping are delays in the delivery of critical American equipment, with the U.S. arms sales backlog to Taiwan valued at $21.95 billion as of late last year, including $8.4 billion for asymmetric capabilities, according to the Cato Institute.
The reasons for the backlog include production capacity issues due to a surge in demand for U.S. equipment by Washington's partners and allies, including military support for Ukraine.
Raymond Greene, head of the American Institute of Taiwan, the de facto U.S. Embassy on the self-ruled island, told Taiwanese media that Washington has been working “very hard” to accelerate deliveries, especially of asymmetric systems.
Taipei is aware of the issue, with the administration of President Lai Ching-te leaning heavily into drone manufacturing, which it views as a key element of Taiwan’s defense infrastructure.
In recent years, the government has been expanding national defense programs focusing on autonomous swarms, setting up a state-run drone research-and-development center in Chiayi County, working toward a civil-military fusion and collaborating more closely with like-minded partners.
Taiwan’s small and midsize drone manufacturers need economies of scale, Ou said, which is why Taipei is also looking at opportunities to co-produce with American companies and establish “a non-red (China) supply chain.”
Taiwan has also been making progress in other asymmetric capabilities, especially after a $7.4 billion special budget was passed in 2021 to expand the island’s defense-industrial base, including through the production of advanced missiles.
Experts from the Global Taiwan Institute say the program has so far been a success, noting that the National Chung-Shan Institute of Science and Technology, part of the Ministry of National Defense’ Armaments Bureau, was on track last year to produce 1,000 missiles — two years ahead of schedule — for less than $1.5 billion, a fraction of the money being spent on similar U.S. systems.
Advances also extend to sea mines, with Ou saying the Taiwanese Navy has built up a new mine warfare flotilla that can help counter Chinese amphibious landing attempts using a combination of older and advanced smart mines.
But there might be other challenges ahead, especially in terms of funding, as Taiwan struggles with political gridlock in its legislature, a situation that has limited the government’s ability to ramp up defense spending.
The opposition Kuomintang (KMT) and Taiwan’s People Party, which together wield a 62-51 majority in the 113-seat Legislative Yuan, cut 1.3% from this year’s military budget request while freezing another 14%, although the latter is expected to be released once certain conditions are met.
While Taiwan’s defense spending is still expected to rise by about 5.2% compared with last year, the growing intraparty rivalry couldn’t come at a worse time for Taipei.
The United States, under President Donald Trump, has been hinting that it might want to “incentivize” the Lai administration to dramatically hike spending to 10% of gross domestic product — or more than 2 trillion New Taiwan dollars ($60.6 billion) — a target that Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai has already said would be “impossible" to meet, given the central government’s budgets of around NT$3 trillion in both 2024 and 2025.
Lai has sought to demonstrate his commitment to do more to boost Taiwan’s defense spending, pledging to try and raise it to 3% of GDP through a special budget within this year. Experts say most of those envisaged funds — between $7 billion and $10 billion — would likely go toward procuring U.S. equipment.
“Taiwan will buy whatever it thinks will appease the Trump administration the most,” said Lev Nachman, a political science professor at the National Taiwan University, indicating that the issue is just as much about strengthening the island’s defenses as it is about building goodwill with the Trump administration.
Still, passing special budgets will be easier said than done as these would also need to be approved by the opposition-controlled Legislative Yuan.
Alexander Huang, the KMT’s director of international relations, said his party’s position is to neither cut nor freeze funds earmarked for U.S. weapons. However, experts said the KMT has been less favorable of specific weapons systems such as Volcano landmines while cutting and putting on hold funds for Switchblade kamikaze drones.
The KMT says it pursues a China policy focused on both deterrence and dialogue with China, with some members saying that certain military acquisitions could be considered provocative by Beijing.
This approach, however, has led to criticism, not only at home but also from U.S. legislators, with Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan accusing the KMT last week of “playing a dangerous game” with the defense budget.
Huang said that going forward, the KMT plans to move beyond the parliamentary limitations of cutting and freezing budgets and take a more "proactive" stance.
“We will change our approach from ‘waiting for the executive branch’s budget proposals’ to ‘forming a KMT initiative,’” he said, indicating that the party will engage both Pentagon and Taiwanese Defense Ministry "interlocutors" to discuss ways to increase the budget to “meet our defense needs and effectively enhance our warfighting capabilities.”
But while Taiwan may eventually free up more money for U.S.-made acquisitions, the ongoing quarrel over defense spending means the road ahead may be more challenging for home-made asymmetric capabilities.
One important issue has been the opposition’s decision to freeze funds for some homegrown programs, including 50% of the money due this year for the island’s indigenous submarine prototype — the first of a planned fleet of eight locally developed and produced subs.
The KMT and TPP say they will eventually release the funds but only under the condition that the largely untested prototype not only successfully completes harbor trials set to end in April, but also sea acceptance trials by October to ensure that any additional money would be spent on a viable system.
However, INDSR’s Ou, said that such an approach would risk delaying the transition into the program’s production phase at a time when the subs are urgently needed.
The growing political divisions come as the military gap between China and Taiwan keeps widening. Unless Taipei finds viable ways to step up its game, whether on its own or with partners, it is unlikely to deter the increasingly mighty Chinese military.
Taipei's best bet lies in asymmetric capabilities, but as it tries to overcome key technical challenges, it will also have to find ways out of the political impasse at home.
With your current subscription plan you can comment on stories. However, before writing your first comment, please create a display name in the Profile section of your subscriber account page.