The Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDP) and the Democratic Party for the People (DPP) won big in Sunday’s general election.
The smaller DPP did particularly well, quadrupling its seats and solidifying its position as a potential coalition partner — and possible kingmaker. But the DPP's choice of partner or partners remained an open question on Monday.
The CDP, Japan’s largest opposition party, ended up with 148 seats in the 465-seat Lower House — 50 more than the 98 it held before the Lower House was dissolved on Oct. 9. While the CDP had been expected to increase its total, the DPP, which had only seven seats previously, did much better than expected; it clinched 28 seats – four more than the number Komeito ended up with.
With the Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito having failed to maintain their majority, the DPP finds itself at the center of speculation as to whether it will forge an agreement with them to form a three-party ruling coalition, or enter into talks with the CDP to form an alliance centered around the two parties.
For the moment, DPP leader Yuichiro Tamaki is not taking sides. He attributed his party’s election gains to a number of factors that had to do with pocketbook issues.
“In order to implement the economic policies that we’ve campaigned for, which are policy-based and will increase people's take-home pay, we'll cooperate with those who are willing to cooperate,” he told reporters early Monday morning.
The DPP — which, like the CDP, receives much of its support from the Japanese Trade Union Confederation (Rengo) — did well across the country on Sunday because its economic message struck a chord with voters, Tamaki said.
The party won 11 district seats in urban areas such as in Aichi Prefecture, where many of its supporters work in the auto industry, as well as in Saitama Prefecture, where DPP candidate Yoshihiro Suzuki ousted Komeito chief Keiichi Ishii due to voter anger directed at his party over its support of LDP candidates caught up in a slush funds scandal. Three of the four victories in Aichi and one of the two in Saitama were clinched by newcomers.
The DPP also won seats in rural prefectures, including Akita, Ibaraki, Shizuoka, Kagawa and Nagasaki.
The CDP must now work to convince other opposition parties, including the DPP, to form a coalition that would control at least the 233 seats needed for a majority in the Lower House. The CDP campaign emphasized the necessity of carrying out political reform, and party leaders said Sunday night that voter anger over the LDP's slush funds scandal was a major reason they did well.
However, like the DPP, they also said the scandal came at the same time as worries about stagnant wages, rising consumer prices and a growing socioeconomic gap, and that there was a growing sense among voters that the LDP was unable to solve these problems.
Speaking to reporters late Sunday night, CDP leader Yoshihiko Noda said the results meant that there was now a real chance to create a two-party system in Japan that allows for a regime change.
Noda, a former prime minister who became party president late last month as the CDP sought to move more toward the center of the political spectrum and attract a larger number of nonpartisan voters, said that his party — with its 148 seats — is now a combination of newcomers and experienced veterans, some of whom had served in the 2009-12 ruling Democratic Party of Japan to which the CDP traces its roots.
“I want to build a good team with young, talented people who haven't had any experience, and somehow make it possible to achieve a change of government once again,” he said.
Noda said he is open to discussions with the DPP about working together. But the two parties will have to first overcome their differences on a number of policies, including the role of nuclear power in the country's energy mix, which the DPP strongly backs and the CDP is less enthusiastic about.
If Sunday night was good for the CDP and the DPP, it went less well for Kansai-centric Nippon Ishin no Kai. The party went into the election with 43 seats but emerged with 38, failing once again to greatly expand beyond its Kansai base.
However, like the CDP and the DPP, there are questions as to whether Nippon Ishin would accept an invitation to join the LDP-Komeito coalition or consider a tie-up with the CDP.
Nippon Ishin leader Nobuyuki Baba said Sunday night that his party is not at all thinking about joining the LDP-Komeito coalition, at least not “at the present time.” He added that any cooperation with the CDP and the DPP would be difficult due to their policy differences.
The other major opposition party, the Japanese Communist Party, finished the election with eight seats, down from the 10 it held previously.
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