When Secretary of State Antony Blinken sets off on his second trip to China in less than a year, the top U.S diplomat will have his work cut out for him as he tries to deliver a message of both cooperation and competition amid growing disagreements between the rival superpowers.
From Ukraine and Taiwan to the South China Sea and the Middle East, the list of bilateral and global issues on the agenda will be long, with Blinken set to hold three days of meetings with senior Chinese officials starting Wednesday in a bid to manage the increasingly tense relationship.
But while crucial for keeping lines of communication open, the visit is unlikely to yield major breakthroughs, as neither side appears willing to give in on key issues of contention.
“Washington seems most concerned about the increasingly close Sino-Russian relations and China's industrial overcapacity while Beijing is most worried about issues around the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea,” said Zhiqun Zhu, an international relations professor at Bucknell University in Pennsylvania.
“But given the vast differences on these issues, there are unlikely to be any major agreements or deliverables,” he said.
Blinken will have three primary objectives during his trips to Beijing and Shanghai, a senior State Department official told reporters on condition of anonymity.
“First, making progress on key issues; second, clearly and directly communicating concerns on bilateral, regional and global issues; and third, responsibly managing competition ... so that it does not result in miscalculation or conflict.”
Also on the agenda will be discussions on progress made in recent months on resuming counternarcotics cooperation, military-to-military communications, artificial intelligence and strengthening people-to-people ties.
Blinken is also likely to privately offer Chinese officials a heads-up that President Joe Biden could adopt a tougher stance on China as the U.S. presidential race heats up, reflecting the current domestic political climate, said Cathy Wu, an assistant professor at Old Dominion University in Virginia.
The visit, which runs through Friday, follows a phone call between Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping earlier this month, in which they pledged to keep up high-level communication, something they had agreed to last November last during a face-to-face meeting in California.
Since that call, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has visited China, and last week Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin spoke over the phone with his Chinese counterpart, marking the first talks between the countries’ defense chiefs in nearly 18 months.
“We are in a different place than we were a year ago when the bilateral relationship was at an historic low point,” the State Department official said.
Nevertheless, relations remain rocky, with not only political but also trade issues affecting future cooperation prospects.
In recent months, Washington has expanded export controls on critical technologies as well as sanctioned and banned Chinese companies from operating in the U.S.
It has also accused Beijing of engaging in “unfair economic and trade practices,” such as using industrial overcapacity to flood global markets with cheap goods, particularly in the new green industries. China rejects the claims, arguing that its own industries are simply “more competitive.”
And despite the resumption of military talks, tensions over territorial and maritime disputes in Asia remain high, particularly in the South China Sea, where the Philippines, a U.S. treaty ally, has taken a tougher stance in its spat with Beijing.
Washington has also continued strengthening its network of regional security constructs in an effort to bolster what it calls a “collective capacity” to deter and potentially counter Chinese military activities. Referring to the American defense posture, the State Department official argued that stabilizing the Sino-U.S. relationship is possible “without sacrificing our capacity to strengthen our alliances, compete vigorously, and defend our interests.”
This approach, however, has been met with sharp criticism in Beijing.
“It would be self-deluding to suppress and encircle China in the name of competition on one hand, and try to manage competition and avoid direct conflict on the other,” China’s ambassador to the United States, Xie Feng, said at Harvard University last week. “If we only aim at the minimum goal of avoiding conflict in China-U.S. relations, then we would not be far away from going into one.”
Given Beijing’s perspective, Zhu argues that Blinken “will have some explaining to do to Chinese officials.”
“Beijing will challenge Blinken and the U.S. government as to whether Washington’s recent activities match its rhetoric of not seeking confrontation with China,” he said.
The two sides also remain at odds over the war in Ukraine, with the U.S. recently expressing concerns over Chinese transfers of a range of dual-use materials and weapons components to Russia that Moscow is reportedly using to advance military production.
Blinken himself has accused Beijing of being the “primary (foreign) contributor” to Russia’s defense industrial base.
“We see China sharing machine tools, semiconductors (and) other dual-use items that have helped Russia rebuild the defense industrial base that sanctions and export controls had done so much to degrade,” said the State Secretary during a Group of Seven foreign ministers meeting last week.
In Beijing, Blinken will convey those concerns and express Washington’s urging that China “curtail” that support, the State Department official said, adding that the U.S. is “prepared to take steps” against Chinese firms over the issue, if necessary.
Sino-U.S. tensions also remain high over Taiwan, with the island’s incoming president, Lai Ching-Te, set to be sworn into office late next month.
Lai, currently Taiwan’s vice president, has been repeatedly criticized by Beijing as a “separatist” and “troublemaker,” prompting concerns that China may take an even tougher line on the self-ruled island.
“Our expectation will be — particularly during this important and sensitive time leading up to the May 20 inauguration — that all countries will contribute to peace and stability, avoid taking provocative actions that may raise tensions and demonstrate restraint,” the State Department official said.
Blinken’s visit also comes as the U.S. Senate was expected to vote Tuesday on a $95 billion foreign aid package for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan that was approved by the House of Representatives on Saturday.
With its passage all but certain, the act will provide $2 billion in foreign military financing for Indo-Pacific countries, including Taiwan, while allocating an additional $1.9 billion to replenish defense articles and services provided to the democratic island.
While Blinken’s visit is mainly aimed at helping mitigate risks from miscommunication and misunderstandings, it may not be enough to overcome the two sides’ lingering divide, as the superpowers are largely expected to “agree to disagree” on critical issues.
“I want to make clear that we are realistic and clear-eyed about the prospects of breakthroughs on any of these issues,” the State Department official said, adding that Washington will continue to “use diplomacy to communicate our positions and policies, clear up misperceptions and underscore that we will continue to take actions to protect our national security and economy.”
With your current subscription plan you can comment on stories. However, before writing your first comment, please create a display name in the Profile section of your subscriber account page.