Japan will find a like-minded ally in Taiwan President-elect Lai Ching-te, who hopes to build even stronger ties with Tokyo as both look warily at China’s designs on the self-ruled island.
Lai described his win in Saturday’s election as a “victory for the community of democracies,” and signaled that his administration would look to deepen cooperation with Japan by meeting with Tokyo’s de facto ambassador and a Japanese lawmaker just a day after the poll in Taipei.
Japan-Taiwan Exchange Association chief Mitsuo Ohashi held talks with Lai and his running mate, Hsiao Bi-khim, Taiwan's former top envoy to the United States, at the headquarters of Taiwan’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party, with the president-elect noting that the neighbors are both “concerned about regional peace and stability,” the DPP said.
China claims Taiwan as a renegade province that must be united with the mainland, by force if necessary. This policy has triggered concerns of a possible invasion by China, despite U.S. President Joe Biden hinting that the United States would help Taiwan militarily in the event of a conflict.
Lai on Monday told a visiting delegation of former top U.S. officials that he hoped the United States could continue to support Taiwan.
"I am grateful for the strong support from the United States for Taiwan's democracy, which demonstrates the close and solid partnership between Taiwan and the United States," local media quoted Lai as saying.
The election of Lai, who Beijing has called a “worker for Taiwan independence and destroyer of peace across the Taiwan Strait,” has stoked fears that tensions could surge to even higher levels.
On Monday, China lured away one of the handful of countries that formally recognize Taiwan, poaching the Pacific Island nation of Nauru, which said it would sever ties with Taipei. The move leaves Taiwan with just 12 diplomatic allies.
But unlike Nauru, Taipei's relationship with Tokyo is likely to grow under Lai, who has said that Chinese military exercises in the East China Sea, the Taiwan Strait and elsewhere have shown that both Japan and Taiwan “directly face China’s threats.”
“If Taiwan is invaded by China and the Taiwan Strait becomes an inland sea of China’s, that would inevitably also pose a threat to Japan,” he said in an interview with the Yomiuri Shimbun last October, hinting that he expected Japan would deepen security cooperation with Taiwan.
Tokyo views any conflict over the democratic island as an existential threat, and has beefed up defense spending and dispatched Self-Defense Force personnel and weapons to its far-flung southwestern islands near Taiwan while bolstering its military alliance with the U.S.
At the same time, Japan has repeatedly “stressed the importance of peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait” and urged “a peaceful resolution of cross-strait issues” — a stance reiterated Monday by Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi.
“Taiwan is an extremely important partner for Japan, with whom we share fundamental values and close economic and personal relationships,” Hayashi told a news conference. “As an important friend, the government intends to further deepen cooperation and exchanges between Japan and Taiwan” in a nongovernmental format.
Hayashi’s remarks came after Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa on Saturday congratulated Lai on his victory, a move that prompted the Chinese Embassy in Tokyo to express "strong dissatisfaction and firm opposition" to the message, which it said "seriously interferes with China's internal affairs and violates the ‘One-China’ principle."
In his talks with Ohashi, Lai also called Japan “Taiwan's very close democratic partner,” and said that his administration would look to enhance and deepen cooperation between the two sides, including by forging new economic and trade links and on technology to fight climate change.
Separately, Lai stressed the potential for boosted economic cooperation — especially in the semiconductor industry — during a meeting Sunday with former Japanese National Public Safety Commission Chairman Keiji Furuya, who serves as head of a group of lawmakers promoting Japan-Taiwan relations.
Both Ohashi and Furuya later met with current Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. has poured cash into a chip plant it is building in Kumamoto Prefecture, and it is reportedly considering building two more factories in Japan.
The Taiwan issue has only taken on more prominence following the eruption of war in Ukraine in 2022 and the now 100-day-old conflict between Israel and the Hamas militant group, according to former Japanese Defense Minister Itsunori Onodera.
"Now that the DPP is back in power, it is quite possible that China will take various military actions in the future, including exercises," Onodera told a Fuji TV program Sunday.
He said that in such a case, Japan is concerned that the U.S., weighed down by its role in the Middle East and Ukraine, could be wary of developments in Asia "or is even feeling that it would be difficult to take further action."
"Therefore, if China takes action, we, Japan, may have to be very conscious of our involvement in the situation."
Those comments echoed remarks by former Prime Minister Taro Aso earlier this month that saw the ruling Liberal Democratic Party heavyweight claim that any war between China and Taiwan would “definitely be an existential crisis” for Tokyo and that Japan would join the fight.
“Unless Taiwan keeps on fighting, it will be tough for us to safely evacuate Japanese nationals,” Aso said.
Japan, like the U.S., does not have formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan and maintains a similar “One China” agreement with Beijing, under which they acknowledge Beijing’s view that it has sovereignty over the island, but consider Taiwan's status to be unsettled.
In the absence of a formal relationship, Tokyo and Taipei have built robust unofficial ties — including in the economic and person-to-person spheres — while attempting to institutionalize talks between their respective ruling parties, which have already conducted a handful of "two-plus-two" foreign affairs and defense-related meetings in recent years.
Lai is largely expected to follow the foreign policies laid out by Tsai, which have focused on cultivating strong ties with liberal democracies that have condemned China’s moves to diplomatically isolate the island.
Top Taiwanese officials have lauded Japan’s efforts on this front, with Foreign Minister Joseph Wu saying last year that Tokyo's example had provided a model for many other countries seeking to partner with Taiwan.
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