Four upcoming Lower House by-elections are expected to serve as a crucial barometer for Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and the ruling Liberal Democratic party.

Together with an Upper House by-election in Oita Prefecture, the results of the April 23 contests could determine whether Kishida heads into next month’s Group of Seven summit with clear political skies and a tailwind, or under a cloud with party rivals grumbling about his leadership skills.

They may also affect whether the prime minister calls a snap election this year, as some have speculated.