Washington’s concern grows as Beijing steps up diplomatic initiatives with Moscow

A meeting this week between Russian and Chinese officials in Moscow to discuss strategic cooperation raised eyebrows in the West, with Beijing seeking to position itself as a responsible actor on the international stage, particularly in relation to the Ukraine war.

The U.S. didn’t waste time in responding, reiterating its warning that China would face “real consequences” if it were to provide weapons to Russia as Moscow struggles to make substantial military gains one year into its invasion of Ukraine.

Wang Yi, China’s top diplomat, visited Moscow on Wednesday, where he told Russian President Vladimir Putin that Beijing is willing to deepen political trust, extend pragmatic collaboration and advance strategic cooperation with Russia.

Putin said bilateral cooperation is “very important for stabilizing the international situation,” describing Sino-Russian ties as “progressing and growing steadily” and reaching “new milestones.” This is particularly the case in the economic area, said the Russian leader, noting that bilateral trade is set to soon reach $200 billion a year, up from $185 billion in 2022. He also said he expects Chinese President Xi Jinping to visit Russia later this year.

Brian Hart, a fellow with the Center for Strategic and International Studies' China Power Project, argues that Beijing’s alignment with Moscow is largely being fueled by growing concerns and fears about the intensifying rivalry with Washington.

“The recent balloon incident has brought U.S.-China relations to a new low, which creates new incentives for Beijing to strengthen ties with its most powerful partner,” he said.

That said, Wang’s trip to Moscow, which follows visits to several European countries, is also part of a diplomatic push as Beijing plans to unveil its own peace plan for the Ukraine conflict to mark the first anniversary of the invasion.

It also comes as China released a concept paper Tuesday for Xi’s flagship security proposal, called the “Global Security Initiative.”

The paper highlights the importance of adhering to a set of core principles and concepts, such as respecting the sovereignty and integrity of all countries, abiding by the United Nations Charter and peacefully resolving international disputes by addressing their root causes.

“China wants to present itself as a more responsible and peaceful great power that follows the U.N. Charter and advances multilateral cooperation and inclusive development,” said Zhiqun Zhu, an international relations professor at Bucknell University in Pennsylvania.

“In China's view, the rules-based international order Washington often talks about is the U.S.-dominated order, not an inclusive order that follows the U.N. Charter,” he added.

Among all the international players, Beijing likely has the most leverage over Moscow, said Ian Chong, a professor at the National University of Singapore.

“Should Beijing find the political will and interest, it may be able to go some way in convincing Moscow to adjust its position,” he said, pointing out that China played important roles in ending conflicts in Sudan and in Indochina during the Cold War.

Indeed, a Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson told reporters Wednesday that it welcomed China's readiness to play “a positive role in resolving the Ukrainian crisis," adding that the two countries’ positions on the most pressing international issues “coincide or are close.”

Still, China is perceived to be siding with Russia, despite its rhetoric of respecting Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity, so it is questionable whether Ukraine would accept China's role as a mediator, Zhu said.

Washington also remains skeptical of Beijing’s intentions, accusing China of “trying to have it both ways.”

“Publicly, I think China is trying to present itself as a proponent of peace. Unfortunately, in private, we’ve seen that China continues to aid Russia's brutal war effort against Ukraine, and now it's inching closer to potentially providing lethal aid,” said Daniel Kritenbrink, U.S. assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs, on Wednesday.

In a separate briefing, a Pentagon spokesperson said that while Washington has not detected instances of China giving lethal military aid to Russia, Beijing hasn’t taken that option off the table either.

Kritenbrink’s remarks largely echo those made by U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Sunday following a meeting with Wang on the margins of the Munich Security Conference — the first high-level talks held between the two superpowers since the U.S. shot down an alleged Chinese surveillance balloon earlier this month.

The U.S. has made it “very clear” to Beijing that providing lethal weapons to Russia for use in Ukraine or systematically aiding sanctions evasion would “cause real consequences in our relationship with the PRC (People’s Republic of China) and, presumably, in the PRC’s relationships with others as well,” Kritenbrink said.

“I think the PRC understands what is at risk were it to proceed with providing material support to Russia's war against Ukraine,” the U.S. official noted, adding that Washington “won't hesitate” to target Chinese companies or individuals that violate U.S. sanctions.

That said, the U.S., which has already accused Beijing of providing unspecified, nonlethal military aid to Russia, has not clarified why it believes China would provide weapons to Russia.

Still, Kritenbrink noted that China's words would be taken more seriously if it “pulled back from its support of Russia, which is directly at odds with the principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity.”

Chong also raised the latter issue, saying, “I find the emphasis on sovereignty interesting, given Beijing’s relative silence over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.”

“I am also curious about the references to international law and the maritime domain, since other claimant states in the South China Sea have good reason to question China’s intentions in the region,” he added.