The death of al-Qaida leader Ayman al-Zawahri in a U.S. drone strike in Afghanistan over the weekend marks the biggest blow to the terrorist group since the killing of Osama bin Laden in 2011.
At the same time, it highlights the extent to which members of the jihadi organization seem to once again be operating freely in the Taliban-ruled country following the withdrawal of U.S. and coalition troops last August.
In one of Washington’s biggest counterterrorism successes in years, al-Zawahri — bin Laden’s deputy and a planner of the 9/11 attacks on the United States — was killed Saturday while on the balcony of a “safe house” in Kabul as part of a “precise” airstrike using two Hellfire missiles that did not result in further casualties, according to U.S. officials.
“Justice has been delivered and this terrorist leader is no more,” U.S. President Joe Biden said in a televised address from the White House. "No matter how long it takes, no matter where you hide, if you are a threat to our people, the United States will find you and take you out."
Biden noted that the U.S. intelligence community had become aware of al-Zawahri’s move to downtown Kabul earlier this year, adding that the American operation to kill him demonstrated Washington’s resolve to prevent Afghanistan from becoming a “launching pad” against the United States.
Taliban spokesperson Zabihullah Mujahid confirmed that a strike had taken place, calling it a violation of "international principles."
The operation marked the first known U.S. strike inside Afghanistan since the Taliban recaptured the country in August last year, suggesting that Washington has managed to find nearby places to base U.S. overhead intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance assets, as well as other capabilities, to conduct counterterrorism activities in Afghanistan without the need for a military presence there.
U.S. officials did not comment on whether other countries played a role in what they described as an “over-the-horizon” counterterrorism operation, but said the strike is expected to degrade al-Qaida’s overall operational capabilities, including against the United States.
The U.S. State Department, which had offered a reward of as much as $25 million for information leading to al-Zawahri’s capture, denounced the Taliban government for “hosting and sheltering” the al-Qaida leader, as well as for “grossly violating the (February 2020) Doha Agreement and repeated assurances ... that they would not allow Afghan territory to be used by terrorists to threaten the security of other countries.”
Close ties with the Taliban leadership
Al-Zawahri’s monthslong presence in a Kabul safe house has provided further evidence that the Taliban government — despite repeated denials — still maintains ties with al-Qaida and other Islamist militant groups, which is why the U.S. and regional players have refused to recognize the Taliban regime as the legitimate government of Afghanistan.
But it is not just the Taliban. In a report released in June, the United Nations noted that the Haqqani network, whose members have prominent roles in the Taliban government, continues to be “the trusted partner for local facilitation of safe havens and support for the al-Qaida core.”
The Haqqani network — designated as an international terrorist organization by the U.S. since 2012 — also has contacts with the Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan (TTP) group, which constitutes the largest component of foreign terrorist fighters in Afghanistan, with their number estimated to be several thousand.
The Taliban’s return to power last August is believed to have given al-Qaida a significant boost in the Central Asian country. In its June report, the U.N. had already warned that the relationship between al-Qaida and the Taliban remained close and was being underscored by the presence, both in Afghanistan and elsewhere in the region, of the group’s core leadership. Members of affiliated branches, such as al-Qaida in the Indian subcontinent, also have a presence there, the report said.
“U.N. member state assessments thus far suggest that al-Qaida has a safe haven under the Taliban and increased freedom of action,” the report’s authors wrote, adding that some high-ranking group members have reportedly been living in Kabul’s former diplomatic quarter, where they have access to Ministry for Foreign Affairs meetings.
Al-Qaida, which has pledged allegiance to Taliban leader Hibatullah Akhundzada, has been taking advantage of the U.S. withdrawal to “attract new recruits and funding” and inspire affiliates globally, according to the report. It also noted that most members of Islamist organization are thought to remain in the south and east of Afghanistan, where the group has had a historical presence. That said, a possible shift of core members to more westerly locations in Farah and Herat provinces has also been noted.
Degraded capabilities
While al-Qaida enjoys greater freedom under the new regime, its operational capabilities remain limited, with the U.N. saying that its activities in Afghanistan have been reduced to offering advice and support to the Taliban.
The group is “unlikely to mount or direct attacks outside Afghanistan for the next year or two, owing to both a lack of capability and Taliban restraint,” the report said. This capability is likely to be constrained even further by U.S. counterterrorism pressure and the loss of al-Zawahri, who is believed to have played a key role in attacks on the USS Cole and U.S. embassies in Kenya and Tanzania.
Nevertheless, there are concerns that al-Qaida could regenerate, especially if the Taliban renege on their commitment to restrain the group. “Going forward, al-Qaida appears free to pursue its objectives, short of international attacks or other high-profile activity that could embarrass the Taliban or harm their interests,” the U.N. report said, adding that these objectives are likely to include recruitment, training, fundraising and video communications.
A potential resurgence
In fact, some U.N. member states are worried that the group’s ultimate objective is to continue its idea of global jihad.
“While al-Qaida is reportedly aware of the need to avoid embarrassing the Taliban, it is noteworthy that when Taliban authorities were pressing to receive humanitarian support from the United Nations, al-Qaida did not soften its tone regarding the United Nations or its future intentions to mount attacks against Western targets,” the U.N report said.
While al-Qaida is not believed to be capable of mounting international attacks before 2023, their presence, and that of many other militant groups on Afghan soil, gives cause for concern that the country could once again become a breeding ground for global terrorism.
At the same time, it is Afghan civilians who continue to suffer the most under the Taliban’s unwillingness or inability to cut ties with these groups, as the country not only grapples with escalating violence but also with a worsening economic and humanitarian crisis.
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