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The dollar’s rally to two-decade highs appears to have stalled, with doubts growing on whether the U.S. economy will prove as resilient and monetary policy as aggressive as previously expected.

After climbing 10% in three months, the greenback has slipped 3% since May 13. Some reckon that’s because the safe-haven bid sparked by the Russia-Ukraine war has now ebbed. Others say that if the Federal Reserve were to tighten monetary policy significantly it would risk propelling the U.S. economy into recession.

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