2022 is the Year of the Tiger and Prime Minister Fumio Kishida appears ready to go on the attack. The Upper House election, slated for July, will be his most important battle.

“I believe that this year we will face major issues such as the coronavirus response, economic revival, diplomacy and security,” Kishida said during an NHK program on Jan. 9. “I would like to gain the understanding and support of as many people as possible by steadily producing results one at a time."

In order to achieve this, however, the prime minister must first demonstrate his ability to lead the ruling coalition while overseeing the passage of a record-breaking fiscal 2022 budget and a series of bills during the 150-day regular parliamentary session, which starts Monday.

Whether or not the Diet session is successful for Kishida will depend on how well he steers the ruling parties toward passing legislation as he handles a fresh wave of COVID-19 cases and fends off challenges from the opposition camp.

If the LDP prevails in the Upper House election and he doesn't trigger a snap election, then Kishida would not have to face another election until 2025. That three-year period would give him a considerable window of time to solidify his power base, flex his muscles and follow through on his desired policies, said Mieko Nakabayashi, a political science professor at Waseda University.

“The Upper House election may be greatly affected by what happens at or around the Golden Week holidays (in May), so I don't think we can take our eyes off the administration until the end,” she said, referring to the potential for the coronavirus to spread during the annual holiday period, as well as scandals that could flare up in the months leading up to the vote.

Indeed, the path toward the summer election will be treacherous for Kishida, with the coronavirus and its highly contagious omicron variant already overshadowing his legislative agenda.

So far, his Cabinet's approval rating is relatively high. The latest NHK poll released Tuesday showed a 7 percentage point increase from December to 57%, while the disapproval rating was 20%, a decrease of 6 percentage points.

However, if the health care system becomes inundated with a massive wave of COVID-19 infections, there could be a rise in both anxiety and skepticism toward government measures among the public, which could cause his Cabinet's approval rating to plummet.

Kishida has learned firsthand what happens to a leader if they lose the public’s confidence over the coronavirus response — the demise of his predecessor, Yoshihide Suga, serves as a clear example. The former prime minister was forced to abandon his re-election bid after his approval ratings took a nosedive, due in part to a public worn down by the on-again, off-again state of emergency declarations.

At the Diet, the prime minister will be greeted with tough questioning from opposition parties, including inquiries about the government’s COVID-19 response.

The opposition is expected to highlight a massive increase in COVID-19 cases in Okinawa and Yamaguchi prefectures — both sites of U.S. military bases. The central government earlier this month imposed stricter virus control measures in both prefectures, along with Hiroshima Prefecture, which neighbors Yamaguchi.

The opposition is also expected to urge the government to be stricter with the U.S. military over COVID-19 measures. It has been revealed that the U.S. military neglected to test troops for the virus before they entered Japan — a practice that could have been the cause of outbreaks at bases, and, in turn, in host prefectures.

On Tuesday, 100 days since he took office, Kishida laid out his administration’s latest set of measures to tackle the pandemic, which included extending the entry ban on nonresident foreign nationals until the end of February and setting up mass vaccination sites operated by the Self-Defense Forces in order to expedite the rollout of booster shots.

“The response to the coronavirus, which will have a major impact on the lives of the people, is a matter of utmost importance to the administration, and we cannot afford to let our guard down even for a moment,” Kishida said last Tuesday.

Nevertheless, the administration opted against submitting amendments to the infectious disease control law to the parliamentary session, which is scheduled to run until June 15. An amendment could have given more power to the central and local governments to secure hospital beds. But the Kishida administration was concerned that any amendment could be met with scrutiny from opposition parties that are skeptical of the government acquiring more power. The administration was also fearful of pushback from medical associations, which are influential supporters of the LDP.

"In a nutshell, the issues that will be confronted by the opposition parties will be put on the back burner so that they will not become points of contention in the poll,” Nakabayashi said. “The current parliamentary session will be like preparation for the Upper House election.”

The administration also abandoned amendments to immigration law that would limit the number of times people can apply for refugee status in a bid to resolve the prolonged detention of applicants. It would have also allowed the authorities to deport individuals who have filed an appeal for the status after a third time. The amendment would have stirred vocal protests from the opposition, which has been critical of the Immigration Services Agency following the death of a Sri Lankan woman detained at its facility.

Kishida’s plate would be full even without those two bills. Starting with the ¥107.6 trillion ($932.7 billion) fiscal 2022 budget, there are about 60 other bills expected to be debated over the course of the session.

One of the top priorities for the administration is economic security legislation. The proposed bill is aimed at strengthening supply chains, restricting access to patent information related to national security, beefing up cybersecurity and actively supporting the development of cutting-edge technologies at companies and universities.

Meanwhile, the opposition, specifically the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, is standing on shaky ground.

The largest opposition party is still struggling to maintain a safe distance on policy matters from the Japanese Communist Party. Political observers believe the CDP's cooperation with the JCP was among the reasons why the party lost seats in last year’s Lower House election.

For the Upper House election, the CDP has been attempting to unify opposition party candidates behind a single contender in each of 32 key single-seat constituencies. To achieve this, the party needs to cooperate with the JCP. Further cooperation with the JCP, though, could drive away the CDP’s key supporting organization: Rengo, the country's largest labor union.

"The raison d'etre of the CDP is being questioned,” Nakabayashi said, adding that “Liberals would be dismayed (if they don't cooperate with the JCP), and those in the middle or in the reformist camp would wonder if the party can really throw their support behind it,” as there are alternatives to the JCP, such as the Democratic Party for the People or Nippon Ishin no Kai.

The CDP has been wavering between preparing policy counterproposals to the ruling parties’ plans or simply attacking the administration, a practice embraced by supporters but criticized by some for alienating the public at large.

During the extraordinary parliamentary session in December, newly appointed CDP leader Kenta Izumi stressed that the party would seek to offer specific policy ideas, describing itself as “a policymaking political party” in a Diet debate.

Still, even with the change of direction under the new leadership, the party’s approval rating has declined. According to the latest NHK poll, 5.4% of respondents said they support the CDP, a drop of 3.3 percentage points from December. The CDP’s approval figure is lower than Nippon Ishin no Kai, the second-largest opposition party in parliament, with 5.8%.

Unable to stick to the new course, CDP lawmakers pivoted back to criticism after a report in December revealed that the land ministry under the LDP-led government overstated construction order data for years.

“This is not to say that going after the administration is wrong, but rather it asks what kind of role does (the opposition) play in terms of checks and balances?” said Nakabayashi. “It is necessary for an opposition party to show that it is playing its role because it has to, in accordance with the very important democratic structure of checks and balances.”